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I keep thinking about how to exploit an Augur like system if it became mainstream. Could use it as a sort of push-poll combined with mega-jackpot?

The basic idea would be to try to raise awareness (break the media silence) on certain topics. For instance, (again assuming Augur was mainstream) the republican candidates could encourage betting that "Hillary will be indicted" where the goal isn't to win but to raise awareness of the case against Hillary. The candidates might encourage this over giving directly to the campaign. People would be buying and selling and be interested in the latest emails.

Democrats could also play the same game like "Guess the Gun Deaths this year - will there be more then X gun deaths this year?". Then encourage donors to buy contracts for unrealistically high deaths. Again the idea wouldn't be to win but to raise awareness.

A futures market would be needed to really get high payouts to make it newsworthy.






Do you think their plan might backfire, because anyone looking will see how low the odds are? Even if a large number of donors are willing to take bad deals, eventually the price is going to settle on the likely outcome. They'd probably be better off buying traditional advertising, don't you reckon?
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atroche
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I don't think the most is to be gained from trying to push number to an unrealistic high.

There more to be gained by focusing on a statistic that actually has a reasonable probability but that's not in public attention.
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ChristianKl
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