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If you judge possibly future policies of a politican by looking at their campaign promises you incentivise the politician to lie.
By the next election the voters have forgotten the old promises and judge the politcians based on the new promises.

There are project like Wahl-O-Mat that try to guide voters to vote based on which parties promise to do what the voter wants. Even among aspiring rationalists tools like the Wahl-O-Mat are popular.

We can't always judge politicians by their outcomes, but we can judge them by their actions.
Does a president give his Department of Justice to a prosecutor who has a record of being tough on white-collar crime or does he give it to a lawyer who's stake is in defending white-dollar crime?

Politics is very much about people so personal decisions are one of the best ways to look at priorities.

Does a Secretary of State push to wage a war without congressional approval or does she go out and say that her government shouldn't wage war without congressional approval? Or does it matter more that the person promises not to wage unnecessary war in the future?

If one of the chief architects of the TPP opposes it right before an election, do we treat her as opposing it?