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The question isn't how likely are the experts to be right. It's are experts more likely to be right than your wild guess. Even if their probability of being correct is quite low; it still should be treated as more accurate than your own opinion.

There is a flaw when they have a clear source of bias which you lack such as their funding sources. Even when no such conflicts exist I'd say people are more willing to ignore experts than to listen to them when they should, and to find a minor excuse.

An important thing to distinguish between is the expert's opinion and the general consensus in their field. The general consensus should be treated with a great deal of respect. Experts may say their personal opinion sometimes for an area that is still highly uncertain, and you should verify their certainty.






There is a flaw when they have a clear source of bias which you lack such as their funding sources.

The problem is that almost all experts have such sources of bias.
people are more willing to ignore experts than to listen to them when they should

Are they ignoring experts, or do they listen to the wrong experts?
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melian
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