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melian 17 February 2016 12:55 PM
70%

The trade war between the US and the rest of the word would result in a deep economic crisis that would hurt all sectors of economy (including real estate). Most Trumpís supporters have no knowledge of how economy really works, but it would surprise me if a billionaire like Trump were as naive as his supporters.

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ChristianKl 17 February 2016 03:48 PM
61%

Trump believes that he's really great at negotiating and can hire other people who are really great at negotiating. He thinks that if he treathens a trade war countries like Mexico and China will fold because their leaders don't want deep economic crisis.

The question is to what extend he knows about the limits of his own ability to make deals in the end and whether he's willing to lose face in a stand-off if he overplays his hand.

I think he sincerely believes that he's much better at negotiating than previous presidents and would start his administration by declaring all treaty as having to be renegotiated. Not because of ideology but because he thinks he's better and will be able to get better deals.

Calling for Mexico to pay for the wall might be about creating bargaining mass, but Trump still wants to negotiate a deal that better for the US than the status quo.

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melian 18 February 2016 02:06 PM
70%

He thinks that if he treathens a trade war countries like Mexico and China will fold because their leaders don't want deep economic crisis.

There are two possibilities:

1) Trump really thinks that.
2) He tries to win more voters with demagogic promises that he does not believe himself.

Is there evidence that option 1 is more likely than the option 2?


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ChristianKl 24 February 2016 02:40 AM
65%

There an interview with Oprah Winfrey from 1988 in which Donald has the same political opinion regards trade : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZpMJeynBeg

He seems to be as unchanging on the issue as Sanders.

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ChristianKl 21 February 2016 06:47 AM
61%

How does Trump think of himself? Who does he think he is? He thinks he's great at making deals. He wrote a book about it. It's part of his identity that's independent of his political career.

He's a narcissist who thinks that while the Iran deal was terrible it would be okay to make a deal with Russia and Iran over Syria.

To me it feels like a deeper position that fits into the rest of what Trump cares about. It's also more than just thinking about typical positions that are popular and then doing them.

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