Donald Trump frequently engages in rhetoric that violates common standards for acceptable political rhetoric while establishment candidates like Jeb Bush don't.
However Donald Trump manages to rise in the polls with that strategy.
Do you think that his rhetoric indicates he's less rational than other Republicans or do you think that he simply chooses a different strategy and is as rational as the other candidates? That the difference are more on the surface than they are differences about actual beliefs about policy?
I've been interviewed for two articles on Trump and game theory. He is either a brilliant strategist or a narcissist whose personality has let him luck into a brilliant strategy.
Donald Trump's way of doing politics is understandable when you look at his station in life and at his personal brand (which has him established as conspicuously brash). He truly has no stakes in this election; he's primarily a businessman who multiplied his inherited wealth more than tenfold, thus securing a place for himself among the billionaires. All the nonsense he could be spouting cannot part him from that, whereas the others are mainly career politicians for whom public image is paramount. Besides, he can rely on name recognition alone for winning votes. Seriously, what's the worst that can happen to him? He gets some bad press. And you know the old adage that negative publicity is still publicity. What's the great mystery here?
In order to win over 50% of voters, candidates have to win the support of many mutually antagonistic groups. Mainstream politicians try to accomplish this by avoiding clear statements which would irrevocably commit them to just one of such groups. Then, if they are likable enough, they may fool each group into thinking that they are secretly on their side and that only political constraints prevent them from being totally clear about it.
Most elections have been won by candidates using this strategy. However, its overwhelming popularity makes many voters yearn for a candidate who bluntly speaks his mind instead of always trying to please. Trump is in any case not likable enough to win with a conventional campaign, so for him an aggressive style may be a more rational choice.
I have trouble calling anyone instrumentally irrational who sets out to do something incredibly difficult and succeeds at it.
Granted the race isn't over, but still.
Personally, it seems like his strategy is to push the psychological buttons of the populous to frame himself as an Alpha among Omegas.
He signals his high status by insulting others, for having to play a game he's too high-status to have to worry about. He's loud, he's insistent, he's actually very good about coming out on top as far as verbal exchanges go, that is, everyone else looks worse than he does.
Plus the whole idea was so absurd from the beginning that it's STILL absurd now, months later, and he apparently understood enough from the beginning to take that and "win" with it anyway.
I have trouble calling anyone instrumentally irrational who sets out to do something incredibly difficult and succeeds at it.
Granted the race isn't over, but still.
Based on past patterns the way the race is going doesn't incidate that the race is going well for Trump. He's got little endorsements of people with political power and that's traditionally more important than polling numbers at this stage.
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