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ChristianKl

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The Sliding Scale of Bullshit Jobs
Cost-plus is a contract where a company isn't payed a predetermined price. Instead they have to report the costs they had to fulfill the contract and then get payed costs+X%. That means that the company doing the contract profits financially ... read more

Problems with objective evaluation of government policies. Part I. The unemployment data paradox
When holding people accountable it's worthwhile to focus on variables that they can control than one variables over which they don't have direct control. I think it makes sense to prefer to elect a president who doesn't make promises ... read more

Problems with objective evaluation of government policies. Part I. The unemployment data paradox
To add to my last comment, this isn't rocket science. It's causal interference 101. If you get this wrong it's seems like strong evidence of mindkilling effects preventing you from reasoning about his ... read more

Problems with objective evaluation of government policies. Part I. The unemployment data paradox
If you have an adoption of a policy in one country than you have n=1. If randomly half of the states adopt the policy and half don't you have n={number of ... read more

Problems with objective evaluation of government policies. Part I. The unemployment data paradox
That's an interesting question. On what basis do you think you are supposed to evaluate a politician's record? Don't mix deontological issues like "what I'm supposed to do" with epistological one's like "how do I know what's ... read more

Problems with objective evaluation of government policies. Part I. The unemployment data paradox
You can seldom do objective evalaution of government policies based on n=1. That's just not how drawing correct inferences about causality in complex systems ... read more

The Sliding Scale of Bullshit Jobs
I don't think Medicare reinbursement is fundamentally different than reinbursement by private health insurance. Any organsiation that pays has it's burocracy. Simply relaxing the rules would mean more fraud and ineffective ... read more

Will election of a republican president result in actual right-wing policies?
Or is your argument that free speech should only apply to specifically designated newspapers?
My argument is not about who should have free speech. The fact that you think it is suggests speaks of the fact that you confuse deontological claims with ... read more

What can Berny Sanders do when there's a Republican congress?
In the US 58% support breaking up the big banks ( http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/01/20/breaking-up-the-big-banks-new-poll-suggest-voters-are-in-favor/ ). Even among Republican's there a majority in favor of splitting up the ... read more

Will election of a republican president result in actual right-wing policies?
Basically you Hillary is either as bad as the status quo or a bit more centrist and which you would consider better. That's very different then Trump. Even a conversvative Republican like Lindsay Graham considers Trump to be very bad and much ... read more

Will election of a republican president result in actual right-wing policies?
Hillary doesn't argue that new laws should be passed for that purpose and Citizens United wasn't a newspaper. ... read more

Will election of a republican president result in actual right-wing policies?
I suspect that most Republicans (including those who dislike Trump) do not rank HRC personal integrity significantly above Trump.
Focusing on ranking people's personal integrity is a red-herring. There no reason to think ... read more

Will election of a republican president result in actual right-wing policies?
I think the right/left distinction removes a lot of important information from view. Will the fact that Trump is a person who sees no problem to forge documents to present in a debate and who thinks he should be able to sue newspapers for ... read more

Should Macro Rubio disavow Stalinist advisor Max Boot
If the comparison would have been Hitler that still wouldn't have made Max Boot a facist. Thinking that it would have would still have been a reasoning error due to political mind-kill. Saying person X is worse than known bad person Y in no ... read more

The Cause of This Nightmare Election? Media Greed and Shameless Traffic Worship
People didn't attack him for that speech because it advocates controversial policy positions. Trump's immigration plan of giving most of the illegal immigrants a legal status by letting them re-enter the US legally isn't that ... read more

Should Macro Rubio disavow Stalinist advisor Max Boot
How does that one-sentence-comparison make someone a Stalinist? That seems to me a huge gap in reasoning. One sentence given in an interview doesn't mean much. Having been a Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan does. What makes you think the ... read more

The Cause of This Nightmare Election? Media Greed and Shameless Traffic Worship
The point isn't to simply explain Trump away. It's to be cogniciant of the fact that the system used to be structured in a way that made it hard for outsiders to run to a system that makes it a lot easier because the news-economics ... read more

The one thing that Trump has in common with Berny Sanders is trade
If people hate Bernie and Hillary, why isn't Martin O'Malley getting more results? People elected Obama because they thought he would bring "change". Now, the same people think Trump will bring "change". ... read more

The one thing that Trump has in common with Berny Sanders is trade
There an interview with Oprah Winfrey from 1988 in which Donald has the same political opinion regards trade : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZpMJeynBeg He seems to be as unchanging on the issue as ... read more

Should the ideal of democracy be about holding politicians accountable?
I don't think the goal has to be an objective judgement. It's alright if the politician made policy choices that you think were good given your own values. I claim I'm making is that judging a politician by what he's actually done is ... read more

Should the ideal of democracy be about holding politicians accountable?
If you judge possibly future policies of a politican by looking at their campaign promises you incentivise the politician to lie. By the next election the voters have forgotten the old promises and judge the politcians based on the new promises. ... read more

The one thing that Trump has in common with Berny Sanders is trade
How does Trump think of himself? Who does he think he is? He thinks he's great at making deals. He wrote a book about it. It's part of his identity that's independent of his political career. He's a narcissist who thinks that while ... read more

The one thing that Trump has in common with Berny Sanders is trade
Trump believes that he's really great at negotiating and can hire other people who are really great at negotiating. He thinks that if he treathens a trade war countries like Mexico and China will fold because their leaders don't want deep ... read more

The one thing that Trump has in common with Berny Sanders is trade
His committment isn't ideological. On the other hand he does have a committment to appearing strong and not looking like he can be bullied around. Trumps own financial interests are in real estage and not hurt much by starting trade wars. ... read more

The one thing that Trump has in common with Berny Sanders is trade
Missing a space between in and common. The lack of editing ability on omnilibrium is ... read more

What can Berny Sanders do when there's a Republican congress?
Are you saying that there's effectively no way for a bank like Goldman Sachs to spin of some of it's devisions as separate companies even if it's management wanted ... read more

Should a Special Prosecutor be appointed for the email scandal?
So basically there are three tests that all have to be passed: 1) The Attorney General determines that a criminal investigation is warranted. 2) There a conflict of interest. 3) It's in the public interest to appoint outside counsel. As ... read more

Should a Special Prosecutor be appointed for the email scandal?
It's worth noting that the question shares a similarity to asking whether special prosecutors should be appointed to investigate various crimes politician done while being in office like torture and various war crimes like aggressive war. ... read more

Should a Special Prosecutor be appointed for the email scandal?
For answering the question well, we have to ask for what regulations guide the appointment of special prosecutors. While googling I can find ... read more

Should a Special Prosecutor be appointed for the email scandal?
The private email server shows bad judgement but Hillary isn't the only person who does thinks like that. A while ago there was the news that Sarah Palin also had her private email server, or more exactly used an yahoo account which got hacked. ... read more

Should UK, Belgium, Spain or Italy split into several countries?
You can say the same thing of the EU and yet, it's publically said that big countries like Germany control the EU. The doesn't even get ruled via Berlin the way the UK get's ruled via London. In the UK permanent secretary of a ... read more

What can Berny Sanders do when there's a Republican congress?
If you believe in the concept of to-big-to-fail banks those take the whole economy with them if they fail. That means that the government has to bail them out if they might fail. It also means that if they do criminal actions like laundering ... read more

Can competition be created in an education market of perfect irrationality?
Standardized testing does succeed in giving schools a basis on which the compete. Under a free market schools are more likely to pay high performing teachers better than to pay teachers based on effort metrics like them having a master in ... read more

Should UK, Belgium, Spain or Italy split into several countries?
In case of the UK, it seems that the Scots are actually in a more privileged position than the English.
For some values of "privileged" that might be true. Scotland has more oil. On the other hand the UK get's ruled from London, mostly by the ... read more

Should UK, Belgium, Spain or Italy split into several countries?
It seems like my memory got it wrong and it was Danish and not Finnish. The main point is that the non-German speaking minorites in Germany got special political rights under the postwar constitution. The SSW which is the party for the Danish ... read more

Should UK, Belgium, Spain or Italy split into several countries?
In theory Europes borders aren't optimal. On the other hand redrawing them creates all kind of problems. As far as Belgium goes, the French part could go to France, the Dutch part to the Netherlands and the few German town to Germany. In ... read more

Trump Says He Will Force Apple to Manufacture in the US Even Though That Makes Absolutely No Sense
Trumps main goal is obviously at the moment getting elected. He's going to say whatever he thinks will raise his chances of getting elected. At the same time making statements like this invites political enemies to work against him getting ... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
Yes, and I responded why I say that's false. Hilary is within the standards that Karl Rove used. Trump isn't. Don't think in binary ... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
Given that the video disrespecting Muhammad was a real event I'm not sure whether that a statement which Karl Rove would have stopped if a Bush official tried to talk that way about an event. ... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
You think that's the category of claim that Karl Rove would have problematic to air when he was communication officier for ... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
In democracies, government employees tend to support the left (though there are exceptions, such as police). In a large part this is just economic self-interest. Whereas for private sector employees more taxes means more money out of their
... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
According to Forbes Trump believes and says publically that autism is caused by vaccines. On Twitter Trump wrote:
A study says @Autism is out of control--a 78% increase in 10 years. Stop giving monstrous combined vaccinations
There ... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
Are there serious candidates (Republican or Democrat) that do pass this test?
I don't think that what Hillary says is significantly more false than the campaign of George Bush with Karl Rove's 100% truth test. Karl Rove considered it to be ... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
. The NYT article says 40% of Trump's Primary supporters are registered democrats.
It's not that long ago that Trump said publically that he's nearer to the Democrats than to the Republicans and that the economy generally grows better under ... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
I don't think "Yes Minister" has something to do with the burocracy being leftist. If you take the issue of equal opportunity you have Humphrey saying that he's pro-women because his wife is a woman. Humphrey doesn't care about civil ... read more

Why are Education and Health Care Outcomes So Bad in the United States?
I think you ignore the reference to Goodhart's law. For this issue we don't compare different people in the same system who achieve different scores with each other.
There are certainly examples of people who achieve high success in their
... read more

Why are Education and Health Care Outcomes So Bad in the United States?
I'm not denying that a correlation between test scores and innovation exists. Goodhart's law. I'm saying that the person who spends 500 hours with SAT prep is going to be less innovative than the person who spends those 500 hours on LW or ... read more

Why are Education and Health Care Outcomes So Bad in the United States?
It's culture in the sense, that Western people are more interested in discussing rationlity because of the way they were raised while Indian people likely focus on getting formal qualifications and passing standardized tests. To the extend ... read more

Why are Education and Health Care Outcomes So Bad in the United States?
I think it's mostly written tests. Tests about vocubulary and tests about grammer. You can make a lot of grammar mistakes and still be understood. As far as I understood the Japanese train the correct grammar rules in school and the students ... read more

Why are Education and Health Care Outcomes So Bad in the United States?
I think the article is more important for the issues that it doesn't address then for the one's it addresses. VoiceOfRa already said demographics, so I won't repeat it. It takes the metrics for education for granted where the person ... read more

Why are Education and Health Care Outcomes So Bad in the United States?
While part of the US healthcare system is the result of a complex political compromise I think that's to easy as an explanation. It ignores that various companies have lobbyists that lobby for a system with high ... read more

The Myth of Basic Science
You can explain the effect of writing about life goals that way, but writing about emotional trauma's has the same effect, so it doesn't seem like this effect is caused by optimistic people not taking sick days. But in general I agree ... read more

On myths about education
I don't think believing that circumstances matter for whether someone commits a crime and ends up in prison is particularly left wing. Guiliani broken-window policing is based on the idea that criminality is due to the enviroment. Arguing ... read more

Finland wants to give every adult a basic income of 800 euros a month
I think it's also about reducing a lot of burocracy that's about ineffectively forcing unemployed people to seek jobs. ... read more

Should the US radically increase spending on Voice of America
Credible is relative. From the Russian perspective there's not credible newsmedia in the way the average person in the West considers the Western media to be credible. On the other hand that doesn't mean that the press reports get ignored ... read more

Should the US radically increase spending on Voice of America
This is just from a few days ago.Basically we have a Russian opposition politician named Alexei Navalny who has a blog and a Anti-Corruption Foundation. Then we have Yury Chaika who claims that someone gave Navalny money to attack Chaika. The
... read more

Should the US radically increase spending on Voice of America
"Most people who might listen to VoA and trust its claims about corruption scandals are the people who are already pro-western in their orientation. It is actually the same in the West."
I think you are wrong on multiple levels. When asked which ... read more

What's more important Laffer Curve or Income Inequality?
(Not being able to edit is annoying with hteml errors...) http://www.nationalreview.com/article/416071/singapore-lee-kuan-yew-built-welfare-state-works-john-fund says Singapore's welfare policy is build on the principle of:
Each generation
... read more

What's more important Laffer Curve or Income Inequality?
Unfortunately no, it's been a while since I last researched Singapore. I remember from that time that someone from Singapore also told me that the Singaporian government sometimes gives poor people money to prevent them from starving but when ... read more

What's more important Laffer Curve or Income Inequality?
I don't think anything in the question was US specific.
Then could you specify what your position is?
Most of their wealth is tied up in unrealized gains on the stock they own in the companies they founded. If they really were taxed at
... read more

What's more important Laffer Curve or Income Inequality?
So your complained has nothing to do with the kind of taxes that Democrats want to implement in the US and you want to focus on the kind of taxes being payed in France?
Earlier this year French Finance Ministry data revealed that over 8,000
... read more

What's more important Laffer Curve or Income Inequality?
The main point of my post was that the tax level isn't the central variable. Singapore does a lot of good things. It pays government burocrats competetive wages with the private sector to forward looking people in government. I spoke about ... read more

What's more important Laffer Curve or Income Inequality?
According to research on the Laffer Curve Wikipedia suggests that the revenue maximizing tax is at 70%. We likely shouldn't have a tax on that level and nobody in the mainstream calls for tax levels that high. If you look at real economic ... read more

Should the US radically increase spending on Voice of America
While the Russian's do have internet, most of them don't speak English and can't consume any English media. At current funding levels Voice of America does reach 187.7 million people weekly. Western media on it's own also ... read more

Should the US radically increase spending on Voice of America
Viliam Bur's description on LW provides a good example of what well funded Russian media achieved in Slovakia and how it radically increased the Slovakian approval rating of ... read more

Should fundamental science be funded by international agencies?
I don't know about the state of economics but even if you say that it takes more than 20 years for new basics to reach the textbooks that still suggests to me that change in textbooks comes from basic research and not from applied research. ... read more

Should fundamental science be funded by international agencies?
A lot of applied researchers only have a vague awareness of basic research conducted in their field 20 years ago, so it's hard to get them involved. And basic researchers seem to generally not care about applying their research.
Basic research ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
No, that would blur the political philosophy of Salafism. It certainly isn't "the end's justify the means". Don't project Western political ideals on Islam. Projecting your own notions is what you are doing if you go for a quick ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
The idea isn't that the existing instiutions rely on the parallel structures but that the existing structures fall down. Especially when you start attacking them a bit here and there. ... read more

Should fundamental science be funded by international agencies?
For a lot of basic research you don't know what it's good for until years after it get's developed. That what makes it basic research. You can't easily define prices for that kind of ... read more

Donald Trump and the Methods of Rationality:    Part I. Deconstructing Political Motivations
My understanding of West European politics is that everyone is at or further to the left of the Democrats except for
While that's true, that doesn't tell you what the actual political conflicts are. "Yes, Minister" manages to be a great ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
You could about joining institutions and I do understand that phrase. It's still not the Salafi strategy for the West which is about building parallel structures. See my other comment for more detailed ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
Calling what happened in Egypt a Western political voting system is a bit like saying that communist countries that have elections have "Western political voting system". It's misleading. The Muslim Brotherhood wasn't intend on playing ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
Calling what happened in Egypt a Western political voting system is a bit like saying that communist countries that have elections have "Western political voting system". It's misleading. The Muslim Brotherhood wasn't intend on playing ... read more

Donald Trump and the Methods of Rationality:    Part I. Deconstructing Political Motivations
Our minds are not a binary - either totally objective or completely biased. Virtually all humans are somewhere between these two extremes.
That's a one-dimensional model. It's not useful for modelling my thought process.
The “enemy” might
... read more

Should fundamental science be funded by international agencies?
The states do fund science but since their main motive appears to be national prestige
Where did you get that idea? It sounds to me like an ivory tower explanation instead of studying the actual debate about changing science funding levels. ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
Once that's done, they can then ratchet Islamic influence into institutions.
That seems to me like a huge misunderstanding of Salafi thought. Salafi thought considers Muslims who engage with the Western political system by running for office to ... read more

Donald Trump and the Methods of Rationality:    Part I. Deconstructing Political Motivations
Being explicit about expectations may be useful, but a person who wishes to know an objective truth must be very careful to separate expectations from the actual evidence.
Research a topic in more depths to articulate specific evidence takes time. ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
Why do you think that's a major goal? And a goal of whom ... read more

Should fundamental science be funded by international agencies?
Empirically I don't think we see that states don't fund basic science because of freeriding concerns. As VoiceOfRa already said, centraliziation of scientific research is bad because it forces the whole community to persue the same ... read more

Donald Trump and the Methods of Rationality:    Part I. Deconstructing Political Motivations
I’m sure you realize that expectations are not objective evidence.
That doesn't mean that it isn't useful to be explicit about expectation. If I am explicetly about my expectations and you disagree with the expectation we can specify how we ... read more

Donald Trump and the Methods of Rationality:    Part I. Deconstructing Political Motivations
I would expect that if you do unconscious racism test you will get a result that correlates with wanting to secure borders. Voting democrat correlates with openness to experience and openness to experience leads to less ... read more

Donald Trump and the Methods of Rationality:    Part I. Deconstructing Political Motivations
When politicians want to change the voting system in their favor, they must present alternative explanations for their motives.
Not every law that get's passed get's well explained by those who pass it. ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
Neither of those were done by ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
The objective of the attack is to Western groundtroups into the Syria. That's because the Koran calls for them defeating Western troops at Dabiq. Actually defeating the Western troops will likely be the part of the plan that ... read more

Donald Trump and the Methods of Rationality:    Part I. Deconstructing Political Motivations
Different people have different motivations. I don't see what Donald Trump has to do with the rest of this post. Donald Trump doesn't act on the self interest of denying voting rights from people who are likely to vote Democrat. He acts on ... read more

Should Mass Shootings be Politicized?
Shootings are the result of political decisions. At the same time people want to have in the future political decisions that lead to less shootings. That's also very political. If you believe in democracy and that important decisions should ... read more

Tit for Tat in US politics
I am interested in the mechanics for the tit for tat at this level. Is there some leadership group in the parties keeping scores and threatening retribution? If this is happening - somehow the press isn't aware or doesn't report on it.
You ... read more

Tit for Tat in US politics
How about updating in a direction where things aren't simply about Republicans scoring on Democrats and vice ... read more

Tit for Tat in US politics
The Ted Stevens prosecutorial misconduct. If this goes unanswered, does it mean the republicans are just the lapdog opposition?
The Bush justice department goes improperly after a Republican senator. In what way does this have to be ... read more

The Myth of Basic Science
Kickstarter seems like a better way to fund these sorts of health sciences
A proper science also asks questions about a domain that are not interesting to outsiders. As far as the immune system goes in "The Health Benefits of Writing About Life ... read more

What's in a name?
The main point of Reichskristallnacht is not the "Reich" but the "kristall", which means crystal. The narrative was that all that broken glass looks really great. It looks like beautiful crystals. The term that the German Wikipedia uses today ... read more

The Myth of Basic Science
Without a government space program I think it would be unlikely that we would have satellites by now. The necessary technology developed over decades because the government payed for it even when there was no commercial application for the ... read more

Will Augur be the first successful decentralised prediction market?
I don't think the most is to be gained from trying to push number to an unrealistic high. There more to be gained by focusing on a statistic that actually has a reasonable probability but that's not in public ... read more

Will Augur be the first successful decentralised prediction market?
There will always be an edge between events that are clearcut "yes" and events that are "unambiguous". On those edge cases there will be votes where not every rep holder votes the same ... read more

Health care wait time in Europe
The statistics that the EU has on average a higher lifespan than the US seems to exist. Determining causation is more complicated and I don't think there data to prove that ... read more

Health care wait time in Europe
Quite a lot of doctors live in departments where their bosses give them the goal to raise the amount of specific yearly targets by 10% every year. If they don't they fail their performance goals. A while ago I heard a presentation about the ... read more

Health care wait time in Europe
Yes. To be more exact if a doctor has short waiting lists they will encourage more patients to get a specific treatment and most of those patients follow the advice. If there are long waiting lists the doctor will only recommend the treatment to ... read more

What's in a name?
Earlier in the 20th century in Germany Goebbels was very fond of this practice. He invented terms like Reichskristallnacht. After WWII was over that practice good a bad reputation in Germany. The same wasn't true in the US and in the UK. ... read more

Should efforts by made to stump out Halloween?
Participating in the halloween by showing up all dressed up can be seen as a co-operative move.
It can also seen as trying to conceal identity and thus ... read more