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atroche

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Will Augur be the first successful decentralised prediction market?
Okay, but there's a very strong financial incentive for the people who create markets to base them on events whose resolution is likely to be uncontroversial. ... read more

Will Augur be the first successful decentralised prediction market?
Do you think their plan might backfire, because anyone looking will see how low the odds are? Even if a large number of donors are willing to take bad deals, eventually the price is going to settle on the likely outcome. They'd probably be ... read more

Should efforts by made to stump out Halloween?
If they feel forced into it, it's not by threat of punishment from the children, but by the need to ... read more

Will Augur be the first successful decentralised prediction market?
Good point. But how do you explain the popularity and financial success of Intrade in non-election years? On the topic of sports, it's unclear whether Augur will be able to provide a cheaper / faster alternative to sports betting. But if it ... read more

Will Augur be the first successful decentralised prediction market?
If an event is marked as indeterminate by enough people, the event creator loses the bond (and the reporters who reported it as indeterminate get rewarded). This is a strong incentive to specify events properly. Besides that, less people are ... read more

Will Augur be the first successful decentralised prediction market?
There are good answers in this blog post and this video ... read more

Will Augur be the first successful decentralised prediction market?
The key difference is that there's no single organisation which handles the operation of the market (including the transferring of funds). It's distributed across the entire Ethereum network, which should (in theory) be as hard to shut down ... read more