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is4junk

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Will election of a republican president result in actual right-wing policies?
sent the U.S. military to Vietnam and during the Caribbean Crisis brought the world close to a nuclear war authorized invasions of three countries
I guess the definition of right-wing includes warmonger for this post? As to the actual ... read more

Should Macro Rubio disavow Stalinist advisor Max Boot
First, I want to disavow Rubio before risking the taint of Stalin on my reputation. Rubio needs to disavow immediately but even then it might be to late to get the Stalin out. Hillary seems to be a decade to late to remove her tainted ... read more

The one thing that Trump has in common with Berny Sanders is trade
I'm wondering is there will be an insider vs. outside dimension to US Politics that is developing as cutting across left vs. right.
I changed the quote a bit to what I think you are trying to say. The answer to the above is yes a bit. A ... read more

Should a Special Prosecutor be appointed for the email scandal?
I think you are giving the 'public' way too much credit for paying attention. It is all about press coverage. A Special Prosecutor would give a continuing source of new leaks and reporting. I'd say a small (less then 5%) amount of people ... read more

What can Berny Sanders do when there's a Republican congress?
I think you are right - but the European attitude is to coddle the banks. Take HSBC - its a European (UK) bank and the UK doesn't do anything about them and their laundering. Another example is UBS - again a European bank - with a long history ... read more

Should a Special Prosecutor be appointed for the email scandal?
The law governing the Special Prosecutor gives the policy to follow. https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/28/600.1
§ 600.1 Grounds for appointing a Special Counsel. The Attorney General, or in cases in which the Attorney General is recused,
... read more

Dura lex, sed lex?
How harsh is the law if it is only a $50 fine? Also many of the sprays have a dye in them to make it easy to find the target. I wonder if the police even bothered to look. The next victim will probably skip the police and talk to a different ... read more

Should a Special Prosecutor be appointed for the email scandal?
My understanding is that process being followed is: - currently 100 FBI agents are investigating the email issue - the FBI will file a report to the DOJ (hopefully this is leaked if not public) - that report may recommend a criminal ... read more

Should a Special Prosecutor be appointed for the email scandal?
The private email server shows bad judgement no matter what. Unless Clinton is right that all the classifications are retroactive, I don't see how a special prosecutor would be bad. It would help remove conflict of interest concerns if they ... read more

What can Berny Sanders do when there's a Republican congress?
What does breaking up the banks do? While I am not opposed - I don't see how it really helps. A big part of the subprime mortgage crisis was due to the bad credit rating agencies. And Having lots of small banks won't stop them from behaving ... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
Megan McArdle doesn't think Trump is going to beat the system.
The third problem is bureaucratic proceduralism. Yes, yes, I know: Everyone hates bureaucrats. But everyone loves Social Security checks. And federal funding for their local
... read more

Can competition be created in an education market of perfect irrationality?
Here is a libertarian's take on the issue. The Education Apocalypse: How It Happened and How to Survive It. With all the free online courses I am surprised people still pay for higher education. As for high school and below there is Khan ... read more

Trump Says He Will Force Apple to Manufacture in the US Even Though That Makes Absolutely No Sense
Trump said "we're gonna get Apple to start building their damn computers and things in this country, instead of in other countries." How does this translate in to "Force Apple to Manufacture in the US"? Here is the reason Apple CEO Cook ... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
Based on Trump's previous media manipulations, I am guessing he will distort Hillary's statements on the Iraq War (since that is something her base cares about). Then Hillary can try to catch Trump in a lie by showing her actual statements ... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
I think he means President Hillary Or maybe Obama. She is also straddling the fence on this one. From the article:
And Hillary Clinton has said the same thing about, well, we don't know. We should study it. Is it irresponsible for a major
... read more

Beating a 'Yes Minister' system
That said it's very unclear what Trump even wants to do when elected.
This is due to Trump's lack of donors. Normally, you'd know what the plan is by looking at who is buying the politician - funding the campaign, being the attack dog, ... read more

Why are Education and Health Care Outcomes So Bad in the United States?
The outcomes aren't bad at all. But there are very well funded political groups that want to spend more money on these fields and they make these claims to further the goals. Once a government has a single payer system, the same groups have an ... read more

On myths about education
The education myth is just a branch of the blank slate myth. The left won't even consider it - even people that consider themselves model rationalist say things like "too horrible to contemplate" when shown evidence that the blank slate is a ... read more

Integration of Muslim Immigrants: US vs. Europe
According to this economist article, I will go with option 3 the selection process. While not designed that way, the legal US immigration process is probably so convoluted that a higher education is practically needed to navigate it. Of course, the ... read more

Integration of Muslim Immigrants: US vs. Europe
Where is your data from? According to Pew, Muslim income is near the bottom of all the major faiths groups in the US and about 2/3rds of Muslims were born outside the US - so mostly ... read more

Finland wants to give every adult a basic income of 800 euros a month
Given a subset of the welfare people are poor with budgeting and planning - I don't see how this will work. If they blow their money on gambling, drugs, or debt then they will still need assistance with housing, food, and clothing. In the end, ... read more

What's more important Laffer Curve or Income Inequality?
I don't think anything in the question was US specific.
Given people like Steve Job, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page and Sergey Brin having $1 salaries I don't think it's that horrible to tax them higher than 100% of their ... read more

What's more important Laffer Curve or Income Inequality?
nobody in the mainstream calls for tax levels that high
How far out of the mainstream is France? Which went beyond calls for it and actually implemented the tax! Now this is what I call a super progressive tax rate (same article)
Earlier
... read more

What's more important Laffer Curve or Income Inequality?
The main problem is that its the Left's most effective way to recruit more people. Of course, they have to re-brand it with a new name for every generation but its the same class warfare that they always ... read more

Starting University Advice Repository
The advice I would give
    to a male who had to pay for tuition interested in S T E M not Science
Don't go. Do everything online (coursera,edx,...) But what about networking? try an online fraternity or just live on in a college town ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
My quick take on your position is that it is OK in Salafism to participate as long as the end goal is to eliminate democracy and replace with something else (Sharia Law?). Is that fair? Not sure where the "huge mistake" is - maybe its from ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
Running for office in Egypt was OK - that was a Western political voting system right? If I might ask, where did you pick up this information about Salafi thought? And how is it a _huge_ ... read more

Should fundamental science be funded by international agencies?
Error free would be a high standard for all papers. I am not proposing that. But if you take money for your work (which I doubt Einstein did) I would expect higher quality. Just like if you had a contractor work on your house. If they did Fraud ... read more

Should fundamental science be funded by international agencies?
How about a large financial prize for uncovering shoddy or fraudulent research? This would at least give incentive to researchers who merely try to reproduce a result and incentive for high quality research. When I worked with Computer Science ... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
Is it really backfiring? Islamists do make attempts even if sometimes they fail. The media in the West is pretty cowardly.
    Rushdie - not yet successful Pam Geller - attempt made Charlie Hebdo - check Van Gogh - check
I also wonder if the ... read more

Donald Trump and the Methods of Rationality:    Part I. Deconstructing Political Motivations
I have always dreamed of forcing congress to have the same voting laws as the public. For every vote in congress (the votes that pass laws):
    * allow absentee voting * keep previous and dead congressmen on the books * don't require ID to
... read more

Is there a scientific way to prove or disprove discrimination in the academy?
The main influence for choice of major are (in this order) student themselves, parent, HS teacher. Shockingly career earnings/goals aren't a ... read more

Should Mass Shootings be Politicized?
Answer: Maybe John Kerry:
"There’s something different about what happened from Charlie Hebdo, and I think everybody would feel that. There was a sort of particularized focus and perhaps even a legitimacy in terms of – not a legitimacy, but a
... read more

Will Paris attacks succeed in their objectives?
I'd guess ISIL's objectives were 1) increased propaganda and get more recruits (check, but they hoped for more) 2) prove there is a cost to the West's pinprick attacks (check) The French bombing response are still pinpricks - so ... read more

Should Mass Shootings be Politicized?
There is very little common ground between political parties on this issue.
I agree. But its surprising given how many distinct issues/causes it takes on depending on the shooting. Gun Prohibition - event pushed a prohibition ... read more

Tit for Tat in US politics
I had assumed tit for tat in politics was common knowledge - my mistake. A google book search for "political tit for tat" has only 32k entries Now I suppose it could still be a conspiracy theory but I am still interested in the mechanics of how ... read more

Tit for Tat in US politics
I am not sure what you mean by updating in a direction. I am interested in the mechanics for the tit for tat at this level. Is there some leadership group in the parties keeping scores and threatening retribution? If this is happening - somehow ... read more

Tit for Tat in US politics
You are correct sir! The republicans scored on themselves. I should have checked the timeline ... read more

The Myth of Basic Science
Public Spending on Science seems to be cut first during budget disputes. Given the US debt levels this might be an easy argument to ... read more

Tit for Tat in US politics
The Republicans can't respond to these 'tats' now. They will have to wait at least for the white house and maybe a majority in both houses of congress. As for the judicial branch - I think they have racked up quite a score as well. But ... read more

The Myth of Basic Science
Kickstarter seems like a better way to fund these sorts of health sciences (hypnosis, scraping, ..) While I don't think they would compete well against other health science research - I don't think anyone would mind if a group of people ... read more

Health care wait time in Europe
Do AARP (formerly the American Association of Retired Persons) like groups exist in Europe? I'd assume if they did healthcare wait times would be on the top of their hit lists - assuming that the elderly have as much political clout as they do ... read more

More Oil Companies Could Join Exxon Mobil as Focus of Climate Investigations
Otherwise virtually no industry is safe.
While it would be nice if the courts would make the distinction - they don't. They are just political entities. No industry is safe but an industry can have some (temporary) security if its politics ... read more

Is there a scientific way to prove or disprove discrimination in the academy?
Any reason to single out STEM when the whole academy is out of balance in terms of ... read more

More Oil Companies Could Join Exxon Mobil as Focus of Climate Investigations
No, I don't have that much faith in the US court system. But I'll take even a delay in bad judgement if that is all I can get. Too be honest the case of against tobacco was overwhelming. Smokers were 25x more likely to get lung cancer. It ... read more

Open Thread
Does anyone know who is behind Omnilibrium? Is it a company, one person, a small group of ... read more

More Oil Companies Could Join Exxon Mobil as Focus of Climate Investigations
Hopefully, this has a similar outcome as the obesity lawsuits against fast ... read more

Require Legal Liability Insurance
In the US, for criminal cases you can get a public defender if you can't afford one. They will give you a pretty minimal defense unless your case has lots of ... read more

Will Augur be the first successful decentralised prediction market?
If you are a true believer then you think that if enough people find out it will change the outcome. Advertising isn't enough since you want people to actually care about the message. For instance, if you bought shares of "Hillary to be ... read more

Health care wait time in Europe
The shorter lifespan of the US is due to
  • Smoking habits - 50 years ago
  • Obesity
  • Racial differences
Trying to link them to healthcare provided is just ... read more

Health care wait time in Europe
Those are some evil doctors recommending eye, hip, and knee surgery to people that don't really need ... read more

Health care wait time in Europe
Thanks for the detail. I was thinking about it more in terms of the number of people who start on the waiting list but don't get the surgery - either from death or deteriorating health. As an example, if an elderly person falls and breaks a ... read more

Who should we listen to?
I love it when economist claim to be right all the time but don't show their stock portfolio. Its like the guy who claims he had all the good inventions a decade beforehand but didn't bother to implement them. But that really is the trick ... read more

Will Augur be the first successful decentralised prediction market?
I keep thinking about how to exploit an Augur like system if it became mainstream. Could use it as a sort of push-poll combined with mega-jackpot? The basic idea would be to try to raise awareness (break the media silence) on certain topics. For ... read more

Does the end of military conscription threaten democracy?
I thought the head of the NSA was caught lying about collecting metadata on american phone calls - not wiretapping Merkel. And Clapper wasn't from the private sector in any real sense. As for Obama - I hope he double-downs on spying on ... read more

Should the public trust climatologists in the global warming debate?
Economics hasn't made a good name for itself either. It has been called the "dismal science" and there is the famous analogy question - astrology is to astronomy as economics is to blank? Seriously, the question being asked is more important ... read more

Will Augur be the first successful decentralised prediction market?
Not sure if Auger will be the first successful one or not. Could Auger be used to make sophisticated high payoff / low odds predictions? If it could be the back end for a fantasy football prediction system - then it might be able to branch out ... read more

Should Saudi Arabia be added to the list of state sponsors of terrorism?
Saudi Arabia to run out of cash in less than 5 years if oil prices remain as they are ~$50 a barrel I am guessing they could stretch the money a bit by cutting some funding - but that is far quicker then I had ... read more

Does the end of military conscription threaten democracy?
Is the US political system more like 'yes minister'? Where the bureaucrats actually run everything. It would explain the head of the NSA congressional behavior. It would also explain why in the Princeton study (table 7) that merit pay for ... read more

Require Legal Liability Insurance
I don't like 'required legal liability insurance' - but I wouldn't mind single-payer for lawyers. It would be like free healthcare in Europe. Except it would be free lawcare in the USA. Here are the advantages:
  • The rich wouldn't
  • ... read more

    Should the public trust climatologists in the global warming debate?
    So what is the correct way for a non-climatologist to form an opinion on the GW issue?
    I'd recommend considering that it is not science. In the same sense that you wouldn't think of political science as science. For example, if polysci ... read more

    Should the public trust climatologists in the global warming debate?
    I too have the same question as melian. Would CO2 be considered pollution if it doesn't cause global warming? Would visible light pollution be in the same category - ('common sense tells me that pollution is bad')? How about radio spectrum ... read more

    Should Saudi Arabia be added to the list of state sponsors of terrorism?
    If the goal is to reduce Saudi spending, I'd suggest a tax-cut to the fracking industry would be more effective. I'd like to see oil consistently at $30-40 a barrel or cheaper if possible. My guess is that the middle east's influence on ... read more

    ClearerThinking’s Fact-Checking 2.0
    The politican's job is to lie, to re-frame, and use every underhanded rhetorical device they can get away with. I would suggest that ones who aren't good at this don't get the job. Can you imagine a politician who didn't see a major ... read more

    ClearerThinking’s Fact-Checking 2.0
    Politicians are normally held to high moral standards.
    Are you sure? http://www.gallup.com/poll/1654/honesty-ethics-professions.aspx They are at 7% lower then car ... read more

    Is Evil AI just a proxy argument against big government?
    Yes, unaccountability is a key aspect. Any thoughts on how to design an accountable large bureaucracy? For large corporations torts have had some success but usually governments exempt themselves from civil ... read more

    Five explanations of political divide in the academy
    Hard to say if the data is accurate. A lot depends what average people do with their degree. My take is it is the later for both these examples. pharmacology: pharmacist or guy who gives product samples to doctors finance: hedge fund manager or ... read more

    Major Gaps Between the Public, Scientists on Key Issues
    There is a much larger difference between the 'grad+ science degree' and the 'American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)' then I would have thought. 27% point gap for the warming question 36% point gap for GM food ... read more

    Five explanations of political divide in the academy
    I wonder if there is a large positive correlation between the amount of rigor in a academic field and the percentage of right-wing folks teaching it. Too bad we don't have a way to measure rigor. The next closest thing would be starting ... read more

    Why trying to help poor countries might actually hurt them
    I think one should distinguish between “government job” (which is whatever people with power to “fire” the government expect it to do)
    OK, I see why this isn't a compelling point for Tax Farmers. Basically, you would need to already buy in ... read more

    Why trying to help poor countries might actually hurt them
    I probably didn't do a good job of linking this article to the tax farmers. Let me compare it with the other thread: The cultural explanation of the difficulty of development WV1: That (simplified) worldview is that governments job is to get ... read more

    Stars vs Spending
    Can an author already do this if they want with services like https://flattr.com/ ? Wouldn't they just need to embed the button in the HTML or would omnilibrium need to do something to allow for it. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing ... read more

    Are there any arguments for wealth inequality being desirable?
    Thinking about this a bit more, isn't tithing another reverse redistribution. As for it being desirable - it is usually voluntary. So even if your community started in a equal wealth state (in some way), a charismatic religious leader could undo ... read more

    Is Evil AI just a proxy argument against big government?
    I agree. I'd like to examine those underlying processes to see what would allow an AI to turn evil quickly. In the VA Hospital case - one mistake was that the VA was also tasked with measuring itself against its objectives (tied to employee ... read more

    Should the SEC stop requiring companies to do quarterly earning reports?
    Why not make them do the reporting more frequently? Monthly or weekly? The public companies have been doing them quarterly since the 1934 Security Exchange Act. Now with automation it should be easier for them to do the reporting even more ... read more

    Comments - Suggestions - Criticism
    When I write a comment there is a helpful 'preview' button and an 'allowed html tags' reference. But when I write a 'debate' post - no help is given. Do people write there posts in an editor before submitting? Which one is ... read more

    Are there any arguments for wealth inequality being desirable?
    Reverse redistribution was very popular with empires that required tributes to be paid. For a democracy, I would assume reverse redistribution would be popular for its leaders for the same reason it was for an ... read more